Predicting price movement and direction is a challenge faced by all traders. There are a number of news events that will move the market, however the severity or size of the movement is unpredictable. Most traders will stand aside 10 or 15 minutes before and after these announcements.
Non-Farm Payroll is a monthly report on the employment situation in the United States. It is produced by the Bureau of Labor Statistics at the U.S. Dept. of Labor in Washington, and is a detailed summary of non-farm payroll employment. Some of the employment areas in the report include construction, manufacturing, service, health care, government employment, and transportation.
The September data shows all areas declining except for health care which increased by 19,000 jobs. The largest declines were in construction, manufacturing, retail trade, and government. Since the start of the recession in December 2007, the report states the number of unemployed across the U.S. has increased to 15.1 million. Overall unemployment stands at 9.8%.
Among the areas being reported, construction job losses were the largest at 64,000 in September, followed by government at 53,000, manufacturing with 51,000 and the service sector lost 39,000 jobs.
Total employment in non-farm payroll declined by 263,000 in September with almost 20% of the cuts coming from local government (non-education). Improvements actually occurred in construction where job losses averaged 66,000 a month from May to September, and 117,000 per month last winter from November 2008 to April 2009. Manufacturing also improved from 53,000 losses per month June to August, and 51,000 in September. The numbers are not seasonally adjusted.
For new traders the higher job loss numbers mean less consumer spending as disposable income is reduced, which translates to lower corporate earnings and lower stock prices. Higher umemployment also means higher benefit costs to government. These reports are an important part of the economic barometer for any country, but more so for the United States because of its position as the worlds largest consumer group.
The next report will be available in early November.
